It all comes down to tonight. While Round 4 may not have been the hottest round of team roping, it did bring some more plot twists that added to the drama of a wild week of rodeo.
The Graham’s finally struck for a Round Win, pocketing $11,100 for their 4.4 this afternoon. With the pair having virtually no shot at a Canadian title, they’ll be looking to cash in again this Super Saturday and play spoiler on the teams that still have Championship hopes.
Roland McFadden & Tyrel Flewelling also cashed in, picking up 2nd in the round. Like the Grahams, they’re out of the title race but can play spoiler in the average as they currently sit 4th, as the fastest team to catch 3.
3rd place went to Trey Gallais & Jeremy Buhler, which was a big move. The $5,407 they picked up was enough to push Buhler back into #1 on the heel side, just under $2,000 ahead of Denim Ross. With Bonnett & Spady’s barrier, Gallais & Buhler also moved to first in the average with a 31.1 on 4 steers.
4th went to Simpson & Cullen, who sit 3rd in the average now with a 39.0 on 4 steers. Simpson sits 3rd on the head side with $40,981, $11,500 behind #1 Kavis Drake. Cullen also sits 3rd on the heel side, roughly $13,500 behind Buhler.
DBird & Tyce picked up 5th in the round with a leg. Bird sits 4th on the head side with $36,372 in earnings and McLeod sits 8th on the heels with $33,571. The pair also sits 5th in the average with a chance to move up if any of the top 3 teams take a no time.
The average will play a massive part in who wins the title tonight, paying $16,650 for 1st, $12,380 to 2nd, $8,111 to 3rd, $3,842 to 4th and $1,707 to 5th.
If things were to end right now, as it sits Kavis Drake would be your Canadian Champion Header and Jeremy Buhler would be your Canadian Champion Heeler.
Let's look at the heel side first, Buhler currently sits about $2,000 ahead of Denim Ross and leads the average by 4.8 seconds over Logan Spady and 7.9 seconds over Logan Cullen, meaning that any run faster than 8.1 should net Buhler the average title (assuming Bonnett & Spady do not go any faster than the world record of 3.3) and a Canadian Championship. Even if Buhler can cash in on 2nd in the average, he is untouchable in the title race.
However, any kind of bobble such as a barrier or leg would open the door for Buhler to fall as far as 3rd in the average, while a no time could drop him as far as 6th. Here it gets tricky, if Buhler falls to 3rd in the average, he will receive $8,111 to put him at $62,604, WHICH is less than the $11,100 it pays to win the round ahead of Denim Ross. It also means that both Spady and Cullen would move up in the average, and be within that $11,100 go-round range.
To sum that up, Buhler is the favorite going into tonight with Ross, Spady & Cullen having a shot if Gallais or Buhler stubs a toe.
On the head side, it's a little tighter. Currently, Kavis Drake has an $11,500 lead on the #2 man, Grady Quam. While both Drake & Quam have had success this week, they only have 2 qualified times each and the round would literally have to fall apart for either to get an average check.
Trey Gallais enters tonight #8 on the head side before any average money is totaled and is $19,300 behind Drake. Even if Gallais holds on to the average win and Drake & Ross fail to place in the round, he would still need to place 3rd or better in tonight's go round to get ahead of Drake. If Bonnett can somehow slip past Gallais in the average for 1st, any piece of tonight's go round would push him to #1.
Kash Bonnett enters tonight 2nd in the average, 4.8 seconds behind Gallais. If Drake and Ross fail to place and Bonnett holds 2nd in the average, he would also need to place 3rd or better in the round to pass Drake. If Bonnett can somehow slip past Gallais in the average for 1st, any piece of tonight's go round would push him to #1, assuming Drake and Ross don’t place.
Levi Simpson is the silent threat on the head side with $40,981.58 in earnings before tonight, sitting $11,537 behind Drake. If Simpson and Cullen can get a qualified time tonight, they are guaranteed no worse than 3rd in the average which pays $8,111 and puts him a decent check in the round away from the top spot.
Things should be interesting to say the least, here’s the final Hot Takes from the panel on what they seen in Round 4, who has a chance in Round 5 and everything in between as we prepare to battle it out for the 2024 Canadian title.
Tate Schmidt & Kagen Schmidt:
Question: What was your biggest take away from round 4?
Tate: It got interesting, this is gonna be a drama filled round 5. I think it’s either gonna be a very tough round or very weak. Lots of guys gotta hang it on the line to have a chance.
Kagen: Round 4 was crazy, the door got opened up for the average. With only 3 teams having 4 caught, I think it’s pretty open for a few teams, depending on average and the go round tonight.
Question: Who wins Round #5?
Tate: I think Dawson & Dillon will have a super Saturday and take both. They will go 3.8 to win the round tonight.
Kagen: I ain’t even gonna guess an overall winner, but I’ll go for Kavis and Denim to take tonight and depending how fast… we could see a potential victory lap on foot for Denim.
Travis Speer:
Question: What was your biggest take away from Round 4?
Travis: That was a good round of team roping, a few mistakes by some, and a few solid runs by some. Was surprised to see Kolton & Kavis wave it off. Trey and Jerry are staying solid and keeping themselves in a great position for the average, which will play a huge factor after round 5.
Question: Who wins Round #5?
Travis: I feel like Tryan/Smith and Schmidt/Brost aren’t going home empty handed, they will both put a run together tonight. But my pick on the round win is gonna be Kavis and Denim with a 4.0! Their backs are against a wall now and if they want to win Canada, they need the round win and they’re gonna have to wait to see what the average does.
Canadian champs are gonna be a split team I think now with Kavis on the head side and Jerry on the heels!! Denim will be knocking on the door though if they get another $11,000 tonight. It’s gonna be exciting to watch.
Brett Buss:
Question: What was your biggest take away from Round 4?
Brett: Great to see the Grahams bounce back and get the ball rolling. Quite a few upsets and shake ups with some misses most of us didn’t see coming. Round 5 is going to be an exciting one.
Question: Who wins Round #5?
Brett: Grahams have some momentum on their side now and last time Kavis and Denim took a NT, they came back with a round win. Look for them to split the round with Grahams and give them a chance at a title. Jerry’s in the driver seat in the heeling with leading the average. Kavis is in the driver seat with money won. It’s going to be an exciting round to see who does what.
Grady Branden:
Question: What was your biggest take away from round 4?
Grady: Ol 3-time heels another, Tyrel and Pony look they love being back in Edmonton. It looks as good as ever for those guys. Kash and Logan getting one tangled up is gonna be big tonight. It wasn’t the round I was expecting. I didn’t think Kavis was gonna miss one. Brady and Calgary are having no luck. And the only thing surprising about Dawson and Dillon getting their victory lap is that it took this long.
Question: Who wins Round #5?
Grady: My Wildfire Walkers prediction is gonna be Kolton and Landon. They’re out of the average now and they’re coming for their money. I see them being a 3.7 tonight for the win. I think Kavis and Denim are gonna win a big cheque tonight to help Kavis win the heading. And Jerry will end up winning the heeling. Back the dog in a corner and get bit.
Cowboi Cole:
Question: What was your biggest take away from round 4?
Cole: My round 4 summary is that some people who needed to catch and win got round money to keep their title dreams alive, and some did not catch. I think you’ll see your teams good on 4 just go catch. The Canadian championship will be decided by the average and right now Kash n Logan are lickin their lips!
Question: Who wins Round #5?
Cole: I think Dawson & Dillon do it again with a 3.8!
Around The Saddle Horn:
Round 5 Winner- Well, I'm 2 for 2 on the last 2 rounds and this time, I'm going back to Kavis and Denim. They tend to bounce back from a No Time with a Round Win and with hopes of a Canadian title on the line, I'm sure they'll let it all hang out. Drake & Ross tie the CFR record with a 3.5!
CFR Hot Takes are presented by WILDFIRE WALKERS, you can check them out at the Canadian Country Expo this weekend in Hall B or on their website {wildfire walkers}
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